Aftermath and Lessons of BBVA's Failed Sabadell Takeover Bid

BBVA's recent attempt to take over Sabadell has ended in failure, offering critical insights into strategic missteps in the Spanish banking sector. The bid, which was perceived as rushed and hostile, failed to secure minority shareholders' acceptance, highlighting the importance of social acceptability in banking mergers. Sabadell has a history of rejecting acquisition offers, including three previous refusals due to unfavorable terms, underscoring its resistance to absorption unless conditions are generous. BBVA aimed to reinforce its Spanish identity through Sabadell's absorption, yet the bank derives a major portion of its income internationally, particularly from Mexico (56.5% expected profits in 2024) compared to only 28.4% from Spain, complicating discussions about its national bank status. The bid's aggressive nature raised regulatory and governance concerns, underscoring the role of entities like the Bank of Spain and the ECB in scrutinizing such mergers to protect the public interest. Amid legal challenges by BBVA against government intervention, experts suggest that the sustainability of the takeover is questionable, hinting at potential financial risks. Concurrently, analysis from economic experts on "La Brújula de la Economía" podcast places the failed OPA within broader economic discussions, including the noteworthy increase in quotas for autónomos, indicating wider economic ramifications beyond banking. This episode serves as a cautionary tale for Spanish banks, emphasizing careful planning, regulatory engagement, and stakeholder consensus in future merger attempts.