Economic Growth Masks Underlying Challenges in Spain's Employment Landscape
Spain's strong GDP growth conceals challenges such as rising reliance on low-paid tourism jobs and persistent unemployment, raising concerns about long-term economic sustainability.
- • Spain leads GDP growth among advanced economies in 2025 with a 2.9% forecast by the IMF.
- • Spain's debt has decreased significantly since the pandemic and is expected to decline further by 2030.
- • Economist José Carlos Díez warns about replacing well-paid industrial jobs with lower-paying tourism sector jobs, risking economic sustainability.
- • The IMF predicts unemployment will remain above 10% until at least 2030, despite recent declines.
- • Labor unions emphasize the importance of job quality and workers’ rights in sustaining economic growth.
Key details
Spain's economic growth in 2025 is among the strongest in advanced economies, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) setting GDP growth at 2.9%, outpacing countries like Germany (0.2%), Italy (0.5%), and France (0.7%). The country's debt has also significantly declined from 119.3% of GDP during the pandemic to 101.8% in 2024, with expectations for further reduction by 2030, supported by adherence to EU fiscal rules and sustained economic growth. Despite this promising economic outlook, deeper structural employment challenges remain. According to José Carlos Díez, a respected economist, the Spanish economy is shifting away from well-paid industrial jobs, particularly in sectors like automobile manufacturing, toward lower-paying jobs in tourism. This transition raises concerns about the sustainability of the economic model, as tourism-related positions typically offer lower wages and less stability, potentially undermining long-term economic resilience.
The IMF underscores that unemployment rates remain a persistent issue, forecasting that unemployment will not drop below 10.7% by 2030, while current figures stand at 10.3%. The Spanish government aims to reduce unemployment further to 8%. Labor unions such as the Unión General de Trabajadoras y Trabajadores de España (UGT) highlight that policies promoting job creation and workers' rights—like increasing the minimum wage and collective bargaining—have played a crucial role in boosting domestic consumption and growth. However, they stress the importance of focusing on job quality, not just quantity.
This juxtaposition of robust GDP performance with underlying vulnerabilities, including a weakening industrial sector and reliance on tourism, paints a nuanced picture of Spain's economic health. While Spain leads growth among its peers and has made strides post-pandemic in reducing inequality and increasing employment beyond 22 million jobs, the sustainability of its economic trajectory depends on maintaining well-paid industrial employment alongside tourism. Without this balance, the country risks replacing stable, high-paying jobs with less secure, lower-wage roles, which could hinder long-term economic development and social stability.
These insights come from a combined analysis of IMF forecasts and José Carlos Díez's recent critique, along with the viewpoint of UGT advocating for quality employment and worker rights as essential for future prosperity in Spain. The economic optimism is tempered by calls to prioritize sustainable employment structures that ensure inclusive growth and reduce precarious labor conditions.
This article was translated and synthesized from Spanish sources, providing English-speaking readers with local perspectives.
