Mixed Signals in 2025 Economic Outlook: Growth Forecasts Up Slightly Amid Rising Auto Loan Delinquencies

The 2025 global economic landscape is marked by cautious optimism mixed with warning signs, particularly from rising automobile loan delinquencies. According to the International Monetary Fund's "World Economic Outlook" report from October 2025, global growth forecasts have been nudged slightly upward to 3.2%, though growth is expected to decelerate from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.1% by 2026. Advanced economies are projected to grow approximately 1.5%, with emerging markets and developing economies exceeding 4% growth. Despite these positive forecasts, the economic environment remains fragile due to ongoing risks such as prolonged uncertainty, increasing protectionism, labor supply shocks, fiscal vulnerabilities, and potential market corrections. Authorities are urged to implement credible, transparent, and sustainable policies to restore confidence and ensure fiscal stability (ID: 115348).

In contrast to the macro-level optimism, specific economic stress signals are emerging in the consumer finance sector, notably in auto loan payment delinquencies. The delinquency rate on automobile loans has hit its highest level since 2009, reflecting a 51.5% increase over the past 15 years. In 2022 alone, 1.73 million vehicles were repossessed—the highest number since 2009—highlighting mounting payment difficulties among borrowers (ID: 115345).

Economists point to the growing financial strain on lower-income workers, many of whom rely on vehicles for employment. Nearly 14% of new car buyers in September 2025 had credit scores below 650—the highest since 2016—indicating increased credit risk. The rise in delinquency has been attributed partly to looser credit lending standards amid growing consumer debt and inequality. While some experts caution that these trends warrant close monitoring as signals of underlying economic distress, others argue that the overall economy remains robust. For instance, the U.S. GDP expanded at a strong 3.8% annual rate in Q2 2025, suggesting that elevated auto loan delinquency alone does not confirm an economic crisis.

Together, these reports underline a complex economic picture for Spain and other advanced economies in 2025: while growth persists and inflation generally eases, rising credit delinquencies in critical sectors could foreshadow vulnerabilities. Policymakers in Spain and beyond face the challenge of sustaining growth momentum while addressing inequalities that risk destabilizing credit markets and repressing consumer spending. Constant vigilance and timely policy action remain essential to navigating these mixed economic signals.