Spain and Basque Country Project Solid Economic Growth in 2025 and 2026

Spain's economy is poised for solid growth in 2025 and 2026, with national and regional forecasts highlighting robust expansion driven largely by internal demand. According to recent National Accounting data, Spain grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2025, suggesting the full-year growth will approach 3%. This positions Spain as one of the leading economies in Europe despite global uncertainties. Growth was fueled by private consumption and investment, with internal demand contributing 3.8 points to GDP growth, while external demand subtracted 1 point. All sectors except agriculture showed growth, highlighting the need to focus on the agricultural sector’s strategic challenges. Employment in the circular economy — with emphases on material maintenance, reuse, and reducing resource consumption — surged by 15.52% in 2024, indicating transformational labor market opportunities. Digital technologies and cross-sector activities support this shift.

In the Basque Country, the government forecasts GDP growth of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026, with 14,000 jobs to be created in 2025 and 11,000 in 2026. The unemployment rate is expected to decline from 6.6% in 2025 to 6.4% in 2026, aiming for nearly 6% by 2027. Key drivers include strong private consumption, which is forecast to grow 2.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, and investment, projected to expand 3.8% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. However, the external sector poses challenges due to weak international trade and tariffs affecting exports. Sector-wise, services and construction are expected to drive growth, with services growing 2.8% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, and construction at 3.6% and 2.7% respectively. Industry shows slower improvement with modest growth forecasted amid global uncertainties.

Both national and Basque projections emphasize the importance of training and enhancing worker skills to meet the demands of evolving sectors. The Spanish government has begun regulatory reforms to improve access to training for small businesses and the self-employed. Ongoing commitment to a green, digital, and cooperative economy is encouraged to strengthen sustainability and competitiveness. Additionally, attention is being drawn to social challenges such as high living costs, housing access, and youth emancipation, which remain priorities alongside economic growth.