Spain Faces Economic Slowdown Amid Record Airport Investment and Tariff Disputes

Spain's economy, after growing surprisingly by 2.8% in 2025, is expected to slow to 2.3% growth in 2026 according to the International Monetary Fund, reflecting mounting challenges including inflation, unemployment, and public debt pressures.

In 2025, Spain exceeded government expectations with GDP growth driven by strong internal demand, particularly private consumption fueled by a population increase of over 625,000 and public spending supported by European funds. Tourism remained a robust sector, with more than 97 million foreign visitors spending a record €132 billion. However, inflation ended the year at 2.9%, one percentage point above the Eurozone average, while unemployment reached 9.9%, the highest in the EU, and real unemployment is estimated above 13% when including temporary inactive contracts. Public debt also hit a clear record high of around €1.7 trillion.

Despite these indicators, Spain's external sector faced setbacks, suffering from reduced competitiveness linked to international tariff penalties. The public deficit, though improved to approximately 2.5%-2.8% of GDP, remains pressured by increased government spending and social security deficits.

Against this economic backdrop, Aena, Spain’s airport operator, plans a record investment of €12.888 billion from 2027 to 2031, focusing mainly on airport expansions and modernization at key hubs such as Barajas and El Prat. This investment is part of the forthcoming Airport Regulation Document III, considered crucial by the government to revamp infrastructure after two decades of limited investment.

However, Aena’s plans have sparked a dispute with airlines, which oppose tariff increases on fees currently averaging €11.02. Airlines argue that projected traffic growth of 3.6% annually, reaching over 400 million passengers by 2031, should provide adequate revenue to cover infrastructure costs without raising fees. Meanwhile, Aena, led by President Maurici Lucena, insists on raising fees to sustain investment plans, citing inflation-driven declines in fee value over time.

The tariff disagreement highlights broader economic tensions, with airlines warning that higher fees threaten the competitiveness of an aviation sector that contributes 10.9% to Spain’s GDP. The Aena board will finalize the investment and tariff proposal before submission to regulators by mid-March.

As Spain confronts an economic deceleration, high unemployment, and inflation above Eurozone norms, the airport investment debate underscores the challenges of balancing infrastructure modernization with affordability and competitiveness in a fragile recovery environment.