Spain's Economy Shows Resilience with Upward Growth Revision and Rising Domestic Consumption in Late 2025
Spain's GDP growth forecast was revised up to 3.0% in 2025 alongside a 2.6% rise in domestic consumption, signaling economic resilience amid global challenges.
- • Spain's 2025 GDP growth forecast revised up to 3.0%, 2026 to 2.3%.
- • Domestic consumption rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October 2025.
- • E-commerce spending surged 6.3%, foreign spending via CaixaBank increased 8.0%.
- • Structural bottlenecks remain risks despite economic resilience.
Key details
Spain's economic outlook for late 2025 has been revised with encouraging news, indicating stronger growth driven by domestic demand and services exports despite global headwinds. According to BBVA Research's 'Situación España' report dated October 21, 2025, Spain's GDP growth forecast was raised to 3.0% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, improvements of 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points respectively. This upward revision reflects greater-than-expected economic resilience amid protectionism, geopolitical tensions, and trade uncertainties. The moderation of global growth to 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 is expected to have a gradual impact on Spain’s economy rather than an abrupt slowdown.
The domestic recovery is supported by increasing internal demand aided by lower inflation and interest rates, enhancing consumer purchasing power and financing conditions. BBVA notes that exports of services are projected to grow faster than GDP, boosted by improved investment and competitiveness. However, persistent bottlenecks such as labor shortages in key sectors, automotive industry stagnation, housing deficits, and weak productivity growth could temper the pace of economic advancement.
Complementing these macroeconomic trends, CaixaBank Research's October 2025 consumption report details a 2.6% year-on-year rise in domestic consumption, with a notable 6.3% surge in e-commerce spending and an 8.0% increase in foreign spending through CaixaBank. Physical consumption grew by 2.2%, while foreigners' physical consumption rose by 6.7%. Sector-specific shifts include a significant 8.9% year-on-year jump in electricity bills and a modest 0.5% increase in gas prices, contrasting with a 4% decline in telephone service spending.
Together, these findings illustrate a Spanish economy balancing robust internal consumption and service export growth against external uncertainties and structural challenges. The data highlight optimistic momentum in Spain's economic recovery trajectory for late 2025, with policymakers and businesses likely watching bottlenecks closely to sustain this positive trend.
This article was synthesized and translated from native language sources to provide English-speaking readers with local perspectives.