Spain's Olive Oil Market in 2025 Faces Price Variations and Production Challenges

Spain remains the world's leading exporter of olive oil, producing 45% of the global supply and 70% within the European Union, with cultivation spread across 2.75 million hectares, primarily in Andalusia's Jaén region. This sector is a backbone of Spain’s agro-food system, employing over 350,000 farmers and generating more than 32 million workdays annually, highlighting its economic and social importance.

As of December 29, 2025, olive oil prices exhibited variation across types: extra virgin olive oil priced at €4.025 per liter, virgin olive oil at €3.8, and lampante olive oil at €3.7. Despite these strong market positions, 2025 has proven challenging due to adverse climate conditions negatively impacting production. Forecasts for the 2025/2026 campaign predict a decrease in total output to approximately 2.65 million metric tons among major producing countries, down from 2.94 million tons in the previous period, though this still exceeds the five-year average of 2.41 million tons.

Given these market fluctuations, the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food (MAPA) is actively considering measures such as withdrawing olive oil from the market to help stabilize prices.

The olive oil industry's importance extends beyond economics, also carrying significant environmental and social implications for rural Spain. Despite production pressures, Spain continues to supply over 150 countries, with this product ranking as the third most exported agricultural commodity, positively contributing to the country’s agro-food trade balance.

In summary, while Spain maintains a global leadership role in olive oil production and export, 2025’s climatic difficulties have introduced uncertainties with expected reduced output and price variations. Ongoing governmental considerations aim to mitigate volatility and support farmers and the broader rural economies dependent on the olive oil sector.