Spain to Surpass 50 Million Inhabitants by End of 2026 Amid Immigration-Fueled Economic Growth
Spain's population is expected to exceed 50 million by 2026, primarily due to immigration, which is also driving robust economic growth and shaping future income projections.
- • Spain is projected to exceed 50 million inhabitants by end of 2026, mainly due to foreign immigration.
- • European Commission revised Spain's GDP growth projections to 2.9% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026.
- • Population growth is a major contributor to economic recovery, especially in household consumption and job creation.
- • Per capita income growth is slower, highlighting need for economic model changes to converge with eurozone income levels.
Key details
Spain is on track to reach a population of over 50 million by the end of 2026, driven largely by a significant influx of foreign immigrants. This demographic boom is playing a pivotal role in the country's post-pandemic economic recovery and growth, which has outpaced many other major eurozone economies. According to recent projections from the European Commission, GDP growth rates for Spain have been upwardly revised to 2.9% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, supported by a population growth forecast of 1.1% this year and 1% next year.
Since 2017, Spain has faced negative natural population growth with more deaths than births, making immigration the primary driver of demographic expansion. The National Institute of Statistics (INE) concurs with these projections, having predicted Spain passing the 50 million population mark by late 2026. This surge resembles demographic patterns seen during 2002-2008 before the real estate bubble burst. The increasing population has been crucial to key economic indicators, particularly in household consumption and employment, with the AIReF estimating that 4.9 out of 7.7 percentage points of GDP growth between 2022 and 2025 are attributable to increases in the working-age population and job creation.
Despite these positive trends, the economy’s reliance on immigration for growth also correlates with a slower rise in per capita income, projected to be around €28,900 by 2027 in Spain compared to the eurozone average of €38,400. Experts highlight the need for a more profound transformation of Spain’s productive model to better align income levels with the rest of Europe. The demographic and economic momentum Spain currently enjoys underscores the critical role immigration plays not only in population growth but also in shaping economic prospects for the coming years.
This article was synthesized and translated from native language sources to provide English-speaking readers with local perspectives.