Bizkaia’s Economy Projected to Grow Moderately Amid Export Decline and Inflation Challenges

Bizkaia’s economy continues its path of moderate growth with projections showing a GDP increase of around 2.1% for 2026, surpassing both the Basque Country and the Eurozone averages, according to the latest Economic Outlook Report presented by the Chamber of Commerce of Bilbao. In 2022, Bizkaia outperformed major markets such as Germany and France, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Despite this growth, Bizkaia faces significant challenges. Exports have declined by 11%, leading to a commercial deficit exceeding €3.1 billion. The Euro’s appreciation against the dollar by 13.1% has negatively impacted exports, compounded by rising raw material and energy costs affecting industry sectors. Inflation remains slightly above the national average at about 3%, but is expected to fall to around 2% by 2026.

The tourism sector stands out positively with an 11% increase in overnight stays, totaling nearly four million in 2025. However, the retail sector has contracted, losing 25% of its establishments since 2014. Employment remains strong with an unemployment rate of 7.17%, notably below the national average and bolstered by a record number of Social Security contributors.

The report also highlights gender disparities in industry, revealing that 77% of industrial companies have less than 25% female employees, and only 9% of firms have women occupying over half of leadership roles. The industrial sector expects stability in production and employment but faces hurdles in recruiting qualified personnel.